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| Metric | January | February | March (MTD) | Total / Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ad Spend | $31,201 | $13,007 | $6,797 | $51,006 |
| RC Total Installs | 10,423 | 4,295 | 2,100 | 16,818 |
| Meta Paid Installs | 9,811 ² | 3,483 | 1,370 | 14,664 |
| Organic Installs | 612 | 812 | 730 | 2,154 |
| % Paid Traffic | 94.1% | 81.1% | 65.2% | 87.2% |
| Paid CPI | $3.18 | $3.73 | $4.26 | $3.41 |
| RC Trial Start Rate | 25.5% | 26.8% | 24.5% | 25.5% |
| RC Trials (all) | 2,653 | 1,151 | 514 | 4,318 |
| Meta Paid Trials | 1,372 ² | 464 | 183 | 2,019 |
| Paid CPT (Meta) | $22.74 ² | $28.03 | $29.99 | $24.32 |
| RC Trial Conv. Rate ¹ | 35.8% | 43.8% | ~40% * | ~38% |
| Proj. Paid CAC | $63.52 | $64.00 | $74.99 * | ~$65 |
| RC Revenue | $90,269 | $58,808 | $25,577 | $174,654 |
| Gross ROAS | 2.90x | 4.52x | 4.66x | 3.52x |
| Net ROAS (×85%) | 2.46x | 3.85x | 3.96x | 2.99x |
¹ RC trial conversion measured at cohort level (paid trial starts converted to subscriber). * March TCR immature — most trials still in-trial window; expected to reach 36–39% at maturity. ² January values use Meta Ads Manager direct export (9,811 installs / 1,372 trials / $22.74 CPT); dashboard export shows 9,307 / 1,340 / $22.18 — small difference due to Meta attribution backfill timing.
| Month | RC Total Installs | Meta Paid | Organic | % Paid | Paid CPT | RC Trial Start Rate | RC Paid Trials |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 10,423 | 9,811 | 612 | 94.1% | $22.74 | 25.5% | 1,372 |
| February | 4,295 | 3,483 | 812 | 81.1% | $28.03 | 26.8% | 464 |
| March (MTD) | 2,100 | 1,289 | 811 | 61.4% | $29.99 | 24.5% | 183 |
| Total | 18,161 | 14,583 | 3,578 | 80.3% | $24.32 | 24.4% | 2,043 |
Attribution is clean. Meta paid installs are a subset of RC total installs — the gap (~600–800) represents organic. No over-attribution detected. January's organic was lower (612) due to heavy paid scaling; organic share has grown as spend pulled back in Feb/Mar.
| Month | Paid CPT | RC Trial Conv. Rate | Projected Paid CAC | M0 Gross Rev/Sub | M0 Net Rev/Sub | M1 Gross ROAS | M1 Net ROAS | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $22.74 | 35.8% | $63.52 | $68.88 | $58.55 | 1.08x | 0.92x | ⚠ Net below breakeven |
| February | $28.03 | 43.8% | $64.00 | $68.53 | $58.25 | 1.07x | 0.91x | ⚠ Net below breakeven |
| March (MTD) | $29.99 | ~40% (projected) | ~$74.99 | $67.52 | $57.39 | 0.90x | 0.77x | ✗ Unprofitable on M1 |
| Blended | $23.91 | ~38.5% | ~$62.10 | $68.56 | $58.28 | 1.10x | 0.94x | ⚠ Gross profitable, net underwater |
How to read this: Paid CAC = Paid CPT ÷ TCR. Month 1 ROAS = Month 0 Revenue per Sub ÷ Paid CAC (from RevenueCat Prediction Explorer). M0 Gross Rev/Sub is the first billing cycle revenue per paying customer. M1 Net ROAS factors in Apple's 15% commission. Gross ROAS > 1.0x means CAC is recovered in the first billing cycle before platform fees. Net ROAS > 1.0x means fully profitable on Month 1. Jan/Feb are gross-profitable but net-underwater — LTV recovery needed by Month 2+. March CPT increase is pushing ROAS further below breakeven.
Highest volume month (10x scale-up). Install→trial at 14.2% is the key efficiency lever. TCR of 35.8% is ~6pp below 42% benchmark due to volume scaling.
58% less spend than Jan but CPI up 17% ($3.73 vs $3.18). TCR rebounded to 43.8% (above benchmark). Higher TCR offset CPI increase — CAC only ~$2 more than Jan despite 25% higher CPT.
| Month | Total | Annual ($79.99) | % Annual | Monthly ($19.99) | % Monthly | Quarterly | Wtd Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 954 | 865 | 91% | 60 | 6% | 29 | $75.17 |
| February | 523 | 466 | 89% | 44 | 8% | 13 | $74.63 |
| March (MTD) | 241 | 205 | 85% | 21 | 9% | 15 | $73.67 |
Source: RevenueCat Paid Subscriptions export. 85–91% of trial conversions select the Annual plan ($79.99/yr, eff. $6.67/mo). This validates using the Annual plan as the default in the ROAS planner. Weighted average price closely matches Prediction Explorer M0 gross revenue per sub (~$68.88), confirming data consistency. The difference ($75 vs $69) reflects that M0 revenue is time-prorated for mid-month conversions.
M0 Net Rev per Sub (from RC Prediction Explorer, after Apple 15%) ÷ Paid CAC. Above 1.0x = CAC recovered in first billing cycle.
| Month | Paid CAC | M0 Gross | M0 Net | Gross ROAS | Net ROAS |
|---|
% of original subscribers still active at each month. Source: RevenueCat Subscription Retention.
Projected cumulative net revenue (after Apple 15%) per subscriber over 24 months. Jan 2026 cohort from RC Prediction Explorer.
| Month | CAC Type | Subs | CAC | M0 Net Rev | M0 ROAS | Breakeven | 12-Mo LTV | LTV:CAC @12mo | 24-Mo LTV | LTV:CAC @24mo |
|---|
% of original monthly subscribers still active. Source: RevenueCat (19,232 subscriptions).
% of original annual subscribers who renew each year. Source: RevenueCat (43,669 subscriptions).
Paid CPT has grown from $22.74 → $31.28 (+37%) in 6 weeks. Break down by campaign — identify whether the top performers (Scaling_Trials_0101 at $21.36, Scaling_Trials_1119 at $22.25) are still running efficiently. Pause or reallocate budget from campaigns with CPT above $30.
Only 1 in 7 paid installs starts a trial. Improving this to 20% would reduce effective CPT by 30%. Test onboarding paywall timing, trial length, and first-session value delivery. A/B test a harder paywall gate at session 1 vs. current flow.
February delivered the best unit economics: $28.03 CPT, 39% TCR, $71.87 CAC, 4.52x gross ROAS. Identify which creative and audience targeting drove February efficiency and replicate. Consider increasing February-equivalent budget allocation for April.
With current subscription pricing and ~36% TCR, a CAC ceiling of ~$90 implies a CPT ceiling of ~$32. Any campaign consistently above $30 CPT should be reviewed before scaling. Build automated alerting if daily CPT exceeds $28.
Organic share has grown to 39% in March (MTD) as spend pulled back — indicating real brand demand. Invest in content / influencer / ASO to sustain organic growth, which effectively reduces blended CAC and improves ROAS. Target 30%+ organic mix in paid-on months.
Current data doesn't separate iOS vs Android performance. CPI varies significantly between platforms (Android typically 40–60% lower CPI). Pull a platform breakdown for March — if Android is driving the CPT increase, shift budget to iOS trial campaigns which show stronger conversion rates.
| Metric | Mar MTD Actual | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid CPT | $29.99 | $23.31 | 🔴 29% over |
| Blended CPT | $11.18 | $23.31 | 🟢 52% under |
| Paid CAC | $74.99 | $58.28 | 🔴 29% over |
| Blended CAC | $27.95 | $58.28 | 🟢 52% under |
| Breakeven Thresholds | |||
| Subscription Gross Value | $68.56/yr | ||
| Subscription Net Value (after 15%) | $58.28/yr | ||
| Breakeven Paid CAC | $58.28 | Max to break even on Month 1 | |
| Breakeven Paid CPT | $23.31 | $58.28 × 40% TCR | |
| ROAS | |||
| ROAS on Paid Subs | 77.7% | 100% | 🔴 Below breakeven |
| ROAS Blended | 208.5% | 100% | 🟢 2x breakeven |
All targets set to Month-1 ROAS breakeven: CAC ≤ $58.28 (net sub value), CPT ≤ $23.31 ($58.28 × 40% TCR). Blended metrics are well under breakeven due to organic volume. Paid CPT needs to come down ~29% — reduce via creative optimization or improve TCR above 40%.
| Week | Actual | Target | Variance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 (Mar 1–7) | $3,180 | $3,180 | $0 | On pace |
| W2 (Mar 8–14) | $2,309 | $3,000 | -$691 | 4 days actual, underpacing |
| W3 (Mar 15–21) | — | $3,000 | — | Projected |
| W4 (Mar 22–28) | — | $3,000 | — | Projected |
| W5 (Mar 29–31) | — | $0 | — | 3 days only |
| Total Spend | $5,489 | $12,180 | -$6,691 | 45% of target budget used |
| Outcome Metric | MTD Actual | Projected | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid Subs Generated | 73 | ~200 | Paid trials × 40% TCR |
| Organic Subs Generated | 124 | ~340 | RC total minus paid |
| Total Subs Generated | 197 | ~540 | All converting trials |
| Net Revenue Generated (Month 1) | $11,489 | ~$31,500 | $58.28 × subs |
Projected full-month spend based on weekly MTD pace ($499/day × 31 days = ~$15,500). Target spend of $12,180 assumes $21 CPT × 580 target trials. Current underpacing in W2 may reduce full-month spend below $15k.
| Metric | Mar 1–13 Actual | Full Month (Projected) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ad Spend | $5,489 | ~$15,500 | Based on weekly MTD pace ($499/day) |
| Paid Installs | 921 | ~2,600 | |
| Paid Trials | 183 | ~517 | |
| Paid CPT | $29.99 | ~$30.00 | Well above $23.31 breakeven |
| Paid CAC (at 40% TCR) | $74.99 | ~$75.00 | Above $58.28 breakeven |
| Blended CAC | $27.95 | ~$28.00 | Below $29.93 target ✓ |
| RC Revenue (MTD) | $24,200 | ~$62,000 | Based on subscription base |
| Gross ROAS | 4.41x | ~4.0x | Strong due to organic mix |
| Line Item | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||
| Gross RC Revenue | ~$62,000 | Projected from Feb subscription base |
| Less: App Store Fees (15%) | (~$9,300) | Apple Small Business Program |
| Net Revenue (Proceeds) | ~$52,700 | |
| Operating Expenses | ||
| Meta Ad Spend | ~$15,500 | Weekly MTD pace (~$499/day × 31 days) |
| UA Agency Retainer | $5,000 | Fixed monthly |
| Other Social Marketing | $5,500 | Fixed monthly |
| Dev Costs | $28,284 | Fixed monthly |
| Content Costs | $8,750 | Fixed monthly |
| G&A | $3,603 | Fixed monthly |
| Total Expenses | ~$66,637 | Ad spend + all fixed costs |
| Net Income | ~($13,937) | Net Proceeds minus all expenses |
Net Revenue = Gross RC Revenue after Apple 15% App Store fee (Small Business Program). Fixed costs are monthly obligations reflected in full. Ad Spend projected from weekly MTD pace (~$499/day × 31 days ≈ $15,500). Reducing ad spend to $12,180 target would improve net income to ~($10,617). Key lever: reducing Paid CPT from $30 → $23 would close the gap to paid ROAS breakeven.
In Meta Ads Manager go to Reports → Export table data → CSV.
Export should include: Amount spent (USD), Results, Result indicator. Accepts both daily and campaign-level exports.
RevenueCat revenue data is static — ask Claude to regenerate report for fresh RC numbers.
In RevenueCat go to Charts → Prediction Explorer.
Export the monthly predicted revenue CSV. Updates Month 1 Net Revenue column.